If you like to use wacky stats to place bets, here you go
We have finally made it. 272 regular season games have been played, and twelve playoff games have left us with two teams playing in the NFL’s 285th game of the season. It is a Super Bowl LIV rematch as we have the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers meeting in a matchup that I predicted back in August. And while that isn’t unheard of (hats off to Pete Schrager’s oracle-like abilities when it comes to predicting Super Bowls) it’s still kind of cool to get that right. If you want to see who I picked and what bets I would make, you can scroll right to the bottom of the page and check that out, but if you want a more in depth analysis, make sure to read the actual article. For the final time this season, lets get into the matchup…
Regular Season Record: 166-106
Wild Card Predictions: 3-3 WC Bet Record: 2-4
Divisional Round Predictions: 4-0 Divisional Round Bet Record: 2-2
Conference Championship Predictions: 1-1 CC Bet Record: 1-1
The Chiefs making the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years should surprise no one, but much like in 2021 when they had a rocky start to the season some “analysts” were fooled into thinking they were cooked during a six week stretch after their bye week where they lost four of six games and fell out of the race for the AFC’s top seed and first round bye week. However, as a Patriots fan I remembered the media always counting out the Patriots for various reasons, whether it was the 2-2 start in 2014 which had the media asking Bill Belichick if the quarterback position would be looked at following their 41-14 loss at Kansas City, or in 2018 when back-to-back losses in December had everyone proclaiming that the dynasty was dead. Both of those seasons ended in a Patriots Super Bowl victory, and as much as I don’t like saying it the Chiefs are the new Patriots and should not be doubted until the clock says 0:00 and they have been officially eliminated. They are one win away from being the first team since the ’04 Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champions, and with that win they would cement themselves as the dynasty of the 2020’s (even though their first ring was technically from the 2019 season, you get the point). This year’s Chiefs hasn't been exactly like the ones that reached the big game in previous years, as the offense has struggled to perform consistently and find an identity for the large majority of the season. Their 371 points scored ranks 15th in the league and is 80 points less than the next lowest points total of the Mahomes era, and they had never ranked below 6th in points scored (ranking 1st twice) since Mahomes took over. The main culprit (or culprits) most people point to is the supporting cast around Patrick Mahomes, and specifically the wide receivers and their inability to catch the football, which is a rather important aspect to the job of a wide receiver. The 44 total drops on the year leads the league and many came in the worst moments, from Kadarious Toney essentially handing the Lions an INT and ultimately a W via his butterfingers in week 1, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropping what would have been a game winning touchdown against the Eagles in week 11. But while the offense has uncharacteristically struggled, the defense has taken a huge step forward this year and has been the unit carrying this team for the majority of the season, having not allowed a team to score over 24 points all season. They rank 2nd in sacks, yards allowed and points allowed, with their only “weakness” being their middle of the pack run defense which has struggled in the playoffs, although they weren’t tested much against the top rushing attack in the league in the AFC Championship game (sorry Ravens fans). But the 49ers may have the ultimate x-factor to exploit that weakness in the form of likely Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey who has only failed to find the end zone in three games all year long and posted the greatest rushing season of his career so far, finishing the regular season with 1459 yards on the ground and another 564 through the air. He is arguably the most dangerous skill position player in the league and having totaled over 120 total yards and 2 TDs in both playoff games so far, the Chiefs defense is going to have to focus on ways to limit him as completely neutralizing him has proved to be near impossible when he is at full health. If the Chiefs defense is able to force the 49ers to use their other weapons, The 49er Faithful will hardly be worried, as Brock Purdy can choose between options such as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle to carve the defense like they have all year. Each of them has posted over 1000 total yards and at least 7 TDs, and then throw in Trent Williams at left tackle in addition to Mr. Very Relevant Brock Purdy and you have so much talent across the board that Steve Spagnola will have his hands full trying to figure out a way to slow them down. San Francisco’s offense is about as balanced as they are stacked, ranking 3rd in points scored, 2nd in total yards, 4th in passing yards, and 3rd in rushing yards. Then you look over at their defense and there is next to no drop off in terms of talent and production, with dangerous individuals such as Nick Bosa and Fred Warner who have the potential to wreck an entire gameplan leading an opportunistic defense that ranks 7th in sacks, 5th in takeaways and 1st in INTs. The 49ers have arguably looked like the most complete team throughout the season, aside from their three-game losing skid early in the year the 49ers have looked close to unstoppable. Excluding those three games where injuries began to pile up, San Francisco has gone 14-2 (with one loss coming in week 18 where no starters played), with all but one of their regular season wins being decided by multiple scores. However, the major asterisk with this team (and Kyle Shanahan teams in general) had been their inability to win close games, specifically coming from behind later on in games. In the postseason this year they have done just that, falling behind early on in their matchups against Green Bay and Detroit, looking down and out, before living up to their potential when it mattered most. After trailing 21-14 going into the final quarter against the Packers, the 49ers didn’t allow another point and Brock Purdy was able to lead a game winning drive in the final minutes without Deebo Samuel to survive and advance. Then against Detroit they fell behind 24-7 before a failed fourth down conversion by the Lions became the catalyst for a momentum swing that would see the game tied 24-24 by the end of the 3rd quarter, and the 49ers scoring 27 consecutive points before the Lions could muster a consolation TD at the end of the game. After reaching this point four years ago with much of the same core they have now, the 49ers will have the chance to finally get over the hump and get revenge against the team that denied them football immortality in 2019. It is likely going to be a very close contest the entire game, with both teams trying to protect the football and avoid game changing mistakes. With that in mind it might be the team that plays bolder that makes the plays required to come out on top. I picked these two teams to face off in August and I am going to stick with the score / result I originally predicted and hope the game lives up to the hype.
Prediction: Chiefs win (28-21)
Bets: Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (-130), Christian McCaffery 2 TDs (+230), Christian McCaffery Over 4.5 receptions (+100)
I’ve enjoyed making these playoff preview / prediction articles, and like always Super Bowl week is a little bittersweet because we are all obviously hyped for the game, but we know in the back of our minds that it is the final one we will watch until August (unless you plan on tuning into the UFL, which you should). But until the start of the 2024-25 season I will mainly be writing about Serie A (Forza Roma) and draft day pieces likely mainly concerning the new England Patriots. But I would love to write about the UFL, and other sports news / teams, if you have anything you would like to see covered on this site just let me know and I will do my best to make it happen. But for now, thank you for reading, and thank you for another season of NFL football.
Who will win Super Bowl LVIII
49ers
Chiefs